On June 10, the China Coal Consumption Total Control Program and Policy Research Project Group released the “Research on Coal Consumption Control Policy in the Electric Power Industry during the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”). The report pointed out that the installed capacity of coal power in 2025 should be controlled within 1.1 billion kilowatts, and put forward policy recommendations for the power industry to control coal consumption during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.
According to the report, the “14th Five-Year Plan” is a critical period for the conversion of new and old kinetic energy in my country, and the vigorous promotion of “new infrastructure” and electric energy substitution will play a greater role in the increase in electricity consumption. The report predicts that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society will be about 4%-5%, and the electricity consumption in the whole society will reach 9.2-9.6 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025. In the context of carbon peaks, carbon neutral goals and strict control of coal power, how the power industry can achieve a low-carbon transition while ensuring economic and social operations is a difficult problem that needs to be resolved in the “14th Five-Year Plan”.
The project leader of the report and a professor at North China Electric Power University Yuan Jiahai pointed out that based on the research results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and related historical data and future carbon emission trend forecasts, in order to achieve the global average set by the end of this century, the Paris Agreement The temperature rise is maintained within 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, and the carbon emissions of China’s coal power industry need to be controlled within 3.85 billion tons by 2025.
On this basis, comprehensively considering factors such as the increase in electricity demand, carbon emission reduction targets, and the decline in coal power utilization hours, the report regards the high electrification scenario driven by renewable energy as the recommended scenario for power development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and considers 2025 The annual coal power installed capacity should be controlled at around 1.1 billion kilowatts. “This will help the power industry to achieve carbon peaks as soon as possible and lay the foundation for carbon neutrality.” Yuan Jiahai said. “Under the above goals, the annual carbon emissions of the coal power industry should enter a plateau in 2024, and reach a peak of 3.85 billion tons around 2026, achieving net zero emissions after 2045.”